Early detection of biomass production deficit hot-spots in semi-arid environment using FAPAR time series and a probabilistic approach

Early warning monitoring systems in food-insecure countries aim to detect unfavourable crop and pasture conditions as early as possible during the growing season. This manuscript describes a procedure to estimate the probability of experiencing an end-of-season biomass production deficit during the on-going season based on a statistical analysis of Earth Observation data. A 15-year time series of the Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation from the SPOT-VEGETATION instrument is used to characterize the climatological development of vegetation, its variability and its current status. Forecasts of overall seasonal performances, expressed in terms of the probability of experiencing a critical deficit at the end of the growing season, are updated regularly whenever a new satellite observation is made available. Results and performances of the method are discussed for croplands and pastures in the Sahel.