Methodology for a probabilistic analysis of an RCC gravity dam construction. Modelling of temperature, hydration degree and ageing degree fields

This work intends to be a novel application of probabilistic tools to improve the comprehension of heat transfer phenomena during a roller-compacted-concrete (RCC) dam construction. A probabilistic thermal model is proposed to propagate uncertainties on some RCC’s physical properties. A thermo-chemo-mechanical model is used to describe the RCC behaviour. A global sensitivity analysis is performed via the RBD-FAST method in order to evaluate the influence of some parameters which are given a random character. Heterogeneity on those parameters is further taken into account by means of bi-dimensional random fields. A variance reduction of the model output is observed while using random fields to propagate uncertainties. It shall be enhanced here that the present paper only concerns the thermal behaviour of the RCC dam during construction. In this sense, the temperature, hydration degree and ageing fields are modelled.