Population heterogeneity, state dependence and sexual offender recidivism: The aging process and the lost predictive impact of prior criminal charges over time

Purpose mpeting theories explain the link between past and future criminal behavior: population heterogeneity and state dependence. Actuarial models of risk prediction emphasize static variables, akin to population heterogeneity. State dependence, has never been tested with similar populations. s survival modeling this study examines both population heterogeneity and state dependence using a sample of adult sex offenders incarcerated in Quebec, Canada from 1994–2000. Analyses were conducted on offenders age 36 and over (n = 242). Official criminal activity was measured at: (a) 18–23 years; (b) 24–29 years; (c) 30–35 years; and, (d) 36 + years. s oportional hazards modeling shows stronger evidence for state dependence, suggesting changeability in risk over time. sions t was found for both offending continuity and discontinuity, or a mixed model of offending. Current actuarial risk assessment tools for adult sex offenders do not accommodate for the inclusion of state dependent and life-course processes, which could have implications for the potential overestimation of offender risk.