Stochastic nature of earthquake ground motion

In this paper, we analyze the irregular behavior of earthquake ground motion as recorded during the Kraljevo M5.4 earthquake, which occurred on November 3rd, 2010 in Serbia. We perform the analysis for the ground accelerations recorded at 6 seismological stations: Grua, Ruda, Rada, Bara, Zaga and Bdva. The latter were carefully chosen based on their corresponding tectonic zone and the local geological setting. For each station, we analyze the horizontal component of the ground acceleration in the north–south direction, which is the one of primary interest for engineering design. We employ surrogate data testing and methods of nonlinear time series analysis. The obtained results indicate that strong ground accelerations are stochastic, in particular belonging to a class of linear stationary stochastic processes with Gaussian inputs or distorted by a monotonic, instantaneous, time-independent nonlinear function. This type of motion is detected regardless of the corresponding tectonic setting and the local geological conditions. The revealed stochastic nature is in disagreement with the frequently assumed deterministically chaotic nature of earthquake ground motion.