Analysis of the origin of predictability in human communications

Human behaviors in daily life can be traced by their communications via electronic devices. E-mails, short messages and cell-phone calls can be used to investigate the predictability of communication partners’ patterns, because these three are the most representative and common behaviors in daily communications. In this paper, we show that all the three manners have apparent predictability in partners’ patterns, and moreover, the short message users’ sequences have the highest predictability among the three. We also reveal that people with fewer communication partners have higher predictability. Finally, we investigate the origin of predictability, which comes from two aspects: one is the intrinsic pattern in the partners sequence, that is, people have the preference of communicating with a fixed partner after another fixed one. The other aspect is the burst, which is communicating with the same partner several times in a row. The high burst in short message communication pattern is one of the main reasons for its high predictability, the intrinsic pattern in e-mail partners sequence is the main reason for its predictability, and the predictability of cell-phone call partners sequence comes from both aspects.