Using portfolio theory to assess tradeoffs between return from natural capital and social equity across space

Spatial variance in returns from natural resources, driven by resource dynamics and regulations, can have strong consequences for equitable delivery of value to individuals and communities. Yet resource management models implicitly weight returns equally across space, even when space is explicitly included in model dynamics and policy. Here we translate financial portfolio theory from the temporal to spatial realm and use it to quantify the inherent tradeoff between resource returns and social equity, defined as a more uniform distribution of resource value across space. We illustrate this approach with a marine case study of the Channel Islands, California, USA. Depending on the spatial distribution of resources, increasing spatial equity requires nonlinear reductions in resource returns. Realistic management options, such as effort-based fisheries regulations or marine protected areas, increase or reduce this tradeoff, respectively. We also quantify two critical advantages of portfolio approaches to management: they improve outcomes by avoiding false expectations and increase either resource return or social equity while maintaining the other.