Changing distribution patterns of an endangered butterfly: Linking local extinction patterns and variable habitat relationships

Multiple processes are increasingly recognized as being responsible for species’ extinctions. We evaluated population extinctions between 1930 and 1998 for the endangered Quino checkerspot (Euphydryas editha quino) butterfly relative to agricultural history, human population growth, climate variability, topographical diversity, and wildflower abundance. Overall agricultural land use was calculated for extinct and extant populations based upon cultivation and grazing intensities averaged across five time periods reflecting distinct agricultural practices from 1769 to present. Extinct populations were associated with a history of more intensive agriculture and greater human population growth at time of extinction. A long history of intensive livestock grazing was the strongest agricultural predictor of extinction. Based upon historic vegetation maps, extinct butterfly populations were typically isolated from other known populations by 1930, and in landscapes fragmented by cultivation and development. Precipitation and topographical variability were not important predictors of extinction. Wildflower host plants and nectar sources have declined across the butterfly’s range because of invasive plants and habitat loss. The proportion of years considered average or abundant in wildflowers declined significantly during extinction periods. The Quino checkerspot has shifted in distribution from the coast into foothills and mountains. Newly discovered higher elevation populations experience more precipitation and are buffered from drought. Efforts to conserve Quino checkerspot are enhanced by understanding that the butterfly’s decline and shifting distribution is a complex multi-scale process related to agricultural history, human population growth, climate variability, and wildflower decline.