Using species distribution modeling to improve conservation and land use planning of Yunnan, China

Part of the Himalayan biodiversity hotspot, Yunnan province in China is a highly diverse terrestrial region, particularly in the wide range of natural forest types. These forests are under considerable conversion pressure as land use intensifies with expanding human population and economic development. Conservation strategies based on the geographic patterns of botanical species richness, including the identification of meaningful floristic regions and priority areas for conservation, could improve the effectiveness of forest policy and management. These strategies should also include current threats of loss due to forest conversion to address the more urgent challenges for sustainable development. Here, we produce distribution models at ∼10 km2 resolution for 2319 plant species, using geo-referenced herbarium collections, corrected for spatial bias using a null model, and detailed environmental variables. Based on 1996 species with significant non-random habitat preferences, we identify four important aspects of plant species distribution in Yunnan: (1) species diversity hotspots; (2) seven major floristic regions, using a cluster analysis of species presence/absence; (3) priority areas for conservation based on the concept of the ‘irreplaceability’ value of planning units and (4) the percentage remaining natural forest among the species rich and conservation priority areas, to assess the level of endangerment. Our maps provide clear priorities for the development of a sustainable and feasible biodiversity conservation strategy for Yunnan.