Matching trends between recent distributional changes of northern-boreal birds and species-climate model predictions

Species inhabiting high-latitude environments are anticipated to be exceptionally vulnerable to climate change because of the greater temperature increases projected for these regions. Earlier studies based on bioclimatic envelope models and bird atlas data from 1974 to 1989 have suggested that northern-boreal bird species may face considerable range contractions in Northern Europe by 2080. Using new bird atlas data from Finland compiled in 2006–2010, we show that the ranges of these northern-boreal bird species have already contracted by 27%, on average, compared with 1974–89. The majority (21) of the studied 27 northern-boreal bird species showed significant contractions of ranges and/or northwards shifts. Thus the range changes of northern species are in the same direction as the predictions of species-climate change models.