Stabilizing the agricultural frontier: Leveraging REDD with biofuels for sustainable development

We evaluate the potential of a proposed policy model that would explicitly link the cultivation of biofuels with forest conservation (Biofuel + FC) as part of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The model postulates that a ratio of 4:1 forest conservation to biofuel cultivation be linked to proposals for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD + Biofuel), while a ratio of 9:1 biofuel cultivation to reforestation on degraded landscape (RDL + Biofuel) be linked to the afforestation/reforestation component of the Clean Development Mechanism. Both biofuel production options would be limited to the cultivation of woody perennial biofuel species on low biomass landscapes in order to maximize the carbon benefits of the proposed policy model. The potential to conserve forest, avoid GHG emissions, improve carbon sequestration, and produce renewable energy are evaluated by an illustrative model for five case studies (Pará – Brazil, East Kalimantan – Indonesia, Madagascar, Colombia and Liberia). The Biofuel + FC policy model is then compared with three counterfactual scenarios: REDD Alone with no biofuel cultivation; Biofuel Alone with expanded biofuel cultivation in the absence of REDD and a Most Likely scenario where REDD and biofuel cultivation are implemented without explicit regulatory linkages. The proposed policy model would leverage forest carbon with biofuel markets, which would reduce greenhouse gas emissions and conserve biodiversity, as well as improve human welfare in developing countries, a win–win–win strategy for sustainable development.