Effects of land-use change on the carbon balance of 1st generation biofuels: An analysis for the European Union combining spatial modeling and LCA

Biofuels are considered as an important option for the mitigation of climate change. However, the negative impact of land-use change (LUC) on soil and vegetation carbon pools may jeopardize the potentially achievable savings of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this study the impact of GHG emissions from LUC on the overall GHG performance of 1st generation biofuels was analyzed for the European Union (EU). The scenario-based analysis was done by coupling a spatial land-use model to a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of biofuels. The biofuel demand in the scenarios was derived from figures for the transport sector of the EU-27 Member States. The calculation of GHG emissions was performed with a Geographic Information System. Finally, these results were integrated into the LCA approach of the EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED). Without taking LUC into account, the average GHG emission saving compared to fossil fuel use amounts to ∼50%. In this case the mandatory 35% emission saving target laid down in the RED would be fulfilled. If LUC is considered, this target is reached under none of the simulated biofuel scenarios. In the most realistic scenario the GHG emission savings from 1st gen. biofuel use compared to fossil fuel use range between −2% and 13%. Based on our findings, we conclude that national policy plans for biofuel use should be reconsidered and revised as in their current form they do not provide an adequate measure for the mitigation of global warming on EU-level.