Analysis of genuine saving and potential green net national income: Portugal, 1990–2005

The context of this paper is the measurement of welfare and weak sustainability (defined as non-declining utility) in dynamic economies, i.e., comprehensive or green accounting. We estimate green net national income (GNNI) and genuine saving (GS) for Portugal, for the years 1990 to 2005, accounting for the disamenity of air pollution emissions, the depreciation of commercial forests and the value of time, discussing the implications of the assumptions underlying the inclusion of these terms in the green accounting model. The influence of short-run cycles is analyzed by estimating GNNI excluding business cycles. Our results suggest that business cycles affect the sustainability message of GNNI. We find that potential GNNI is growing and GS is positive in the analyzed period, thereby not indicating a weak sustainability problem in Portugal, although both depict a trend towards unsustainability. Excluding technological progress there is a contradiction in the sustainability message of GNNI and GS.