Modeling water quality and hypoxia dynamics in Upper Charlotte Harbor, Florida, U.S.A. during 2000

Hypoxia has occurred in Upper Charlotte Harbor, a shallow (∼3 m) estuary in Southwest Florida, during moderate to high freshwater flows from the Peace and Myakka Rivers and after hurricanes, due to nutrient loading and vertical stratification. This paper studies the annual hypoxia and water quality dynamics in Upper Charlotte Harbor in 2000, using CH3D-IMS, an integrated modeling system which includes coupled models of circulation, wave, sediment transport, and water quality. The CH3D-IMS simulations showed that bottom-water hypoxic conditions occur during periods with relatively steady moderate to high (5–40 m3/s) freshwater inflows and sediment oxygen demand (SOD). During periods of relatively steady moderate to high river discharge, strong vertical salinity stratification results in reduced vertical mixing which prevents surface water from supplying dissolved oxygen (DO) to bottom water where SOD continuously consumes DO. There was significant temporal fluctuation of the hypoxic water volume, as a result of significant temporal variation in vertical turbulent mixing associated with combinations of spring-neap tides and river discharge. The validated modeling system could be used to forecast hypoxia.