A sensitivity analysis of low salinity habitats simulated by a hydrodynamic model in the Manatee River estuary in Florida, USA

This paper presents a sensitivity study of simulated availability of low salinity habitats by a hydrodynamic model for the Manatee River estuary located in the southwest portion of the Florida peninsula. The purpose of the modeling study was to establish a regulatory minimum freshwater flow rate required to prevent the estuarine ecosystem from significant harm. The model used in the study was a multi-block model that dynamically couples a three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamic model with a laterally averaged (2DV) hydrodynamic model. The model was calibrated and verified against measured real-time data of surface elevation and salinity at five stations during March 2005–July 2006. The calibrated model was then used to conduct a series of scenario runs to investigate effects of the flow reduction on salinity distributions in the Manatee River estuary. Based on simulated salinity distribution in the estuary, water volumes, bottom areas and shoreline lengths for salinity less than certain predefined values were calculated and analyzed to help establish the minimum freshwater flow rate for the estuarine system. nsitivity analysis conducted during the modeling study for the Manatee River estuary examined effects of the bottom roughness, ambient vertical eddy viscosity/diffusivity, horizontal eddy viscosity/diffusivity, and ungauged flow on the model results and identified the relative importance of these model parameters (input data) to the outcome of the availability of low salinity habitats. It is found that the ambient vertical eddy viscosity/diffusivity is the most influential factor controlling the model outcome, while the horizontal eddy viscosity/diffusivity is the least influential one.