Simple approach in HACCP for evaluating the risk level of hazards using probability distributions

Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points (HACCP), internationally recognized as an effective way of controlling foodborne hazards, has been progressively applied for the benefit of the food industry. However, HACCP is a difficult principle to apply. Failure to perform hazard analysis could render the entire HACCP plan ineffective. This paper describes a new analytical method using simple beta and triangular probability distributions to improve the hazard analysis stage of the HACCP plan. Developed in Microsoft® Excel (a spreadsheet program), the model calculates the risk level for the probability, i.e., the likelihood of occurrence of a specific hazard by using background information and data. A pork-cutting procedure was included in a case study. At a 50% percentile value in probability distribution, the highest risk was a biological hazard (e.g., foodborne pathogens growth) in the packaging steps, at a probability of 5.5 × 10−1. The lowest risk was a physical hazard in the packaging steps (e.g., foreign materials introduced by packaging damage), at a probability of 1.4 × 10−3. Despite certain shortcomings, this model, with further improvements, could be expected to increase the effectiveness of HACCP in controlling food safety.