Voss wins the Presidency! A commentary essay on “Predicting elections from biographical information about candidates: A test of the index method”

This comment uses the Democratic Partyʹs nomination race from the 1924 U.S. Presidential election to develop a better understanding of Armstrong and Graefeʹs (2010) Biographical Index. Well-established causal indicators are necessary before actions are taken to nominate, select, or improve the standing of candidates running for election. Forecasting devices such as a Biographical Index cannot eliminate from consideration unworthy candidates. Nonetheless, the Armstrong and Graefe scale appears to have the smallest error of competing forecasting devices.