Temporal distance moderates description dependence of subjective probability

Probability judgment is description-dependent; different descriptions of the same event can elicit different judged probabilities. We propose that the temporal proximity of an event moderates the degree of description dependence in probability judgment. According to construal level theory, near future events are represented more concretely than distant future events. These more concrete representations are predicted to be more stable, and therefore less susceptible to description dependence effects. Consistent with this prediction, changing an event’s description by unpacking it into constituent parts influenced its judged probability more when the event took place in the distant rather than the near future. Specifically, greater description dependence was found for distant events regardless of whether the unpacking manipulation increased (Experiment 1) or decreased (Experiment 2) judged probability.