Claiming a moral minority, saccades help create a biased majority: Tracking eye movements to base rates in social predictions

How do people hold erroneous views about their own moral behavior? This study investigated the use of distributional information in self and social predictions by measuring eye movements to base rates. Across 15 scenarios, participants claimed moral superiority over a comparison peer by predicting that base rates would be less predictive of one’s own behaviors than a comparison peer’s. In support of the differential use of distributional information hypothesis, participants looked less often to base rate information when making self rather than social predictions. Eye movements mediated the relationship between target of the prediction and the strength of the relationship between base rates and behavioral likelihood estimates. Implications for self-deception in self and social judgment are discussed.