Improving estimates of oil pollution to the sea from land-based sources

This paper presents improvements to calculation methods used in the National Research Council’s (NRC) Oil in the Sea reports from 2003 and 1985 to estimate land-based contributions of petroleum hydrocarbons to the sea from North America. Using procedures similar to the 2003 report, but with more robust methods for handling non-detections, estimated land-based contributions for 1977 and 2000 were over 50% lower than the best 1996 estimate in the NRC report. The largest loads were from the northeastern United States and the Gulf of Mexico region for both the 2003 report and updated calculations. Calculations involved many sources of uncertainty, including lack of available data, variable methods of measuring and reporting data, and variable methods of reporting values below detection limits. This updated analysis of land-based loads of petroleum hydrocarbons to the sea highlights the continued need for more monitoring and research on inputs, fates and effects of these sources.