Numerical Technique Based Model Approach to Electricity Growth Forecasting: Ilorin PHCN District as Sample

Many researchers have expressed some concerns in the past about possible development of forecasting model for accurate prediction of electricity growth in Nigeria. This paper has employed numerical technique and a set of mathematical rules which are used as building blocks for the purpose of predicting the growth of electricity. Power Holding Company of Nigeria has problems with generation, with distribution and even with billing. Over the years, electricity supply had been deficient in quality, quantity, accessibility and reliability. The focus therefore, is to discuss and highlight the concept of mathematical modeling and applying this model to solve the problem connected with inaccurate power data. The paper aims in using Dos-based software package to simulate model of electricity growth in Nigeria, Although two models of forecast were used but a modified linear regression method gave better and more accurate result. In this case data from Ilorin PHCN district was used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the model. The evaluation of the data gave a confidence level of 98% for omuaran. Correlation of data obtained from ‘old’ method with the “actual” produced figures of 64% and 94% respectively. Evidently accurate power forecasting will lead to sound energy management, capital and operational expenses