Resource modeling moves into the courtroom

In this paper I discuss the use of a population dynamics model to predict the future population size of colonial seabirds after damages from a loss due to oiling. Although simple, the model was developed in a litigation context by a retained ‘team of experts’ and presented some challenges both in communication of results and concept to environmental lawyers and in the interpretation of results in terms of the legal issues at hand. Use of models like these involve an adversarial relationship between scientists and modelers on each side of the case. Success in these cases arises not so much from scientific credibility or credentials of the scientists as from their ability to interpret their idiom in both intuitive and common sense fashion. Given the litiginous nature of environmental issues in our country and abroad, we are likely to be more involved in such issues in the future. I conclude with suggestions on how we might effectively approach problem resolution in this context.