Empirical modelling of submersed macrophytes in Yangtze lakes

Submersed macrophytes in Yangtze lakes have experienced large-scale declines due to the increasing human activities during past decades. To seek the key factor that affects their growth, monthly investigations of submersed macrophytes were conducted in 20 regions of four Yangtze lakes during December, 2001–March, 2003. Analyses based on annual values show that the ratio of Secchi depth to mean depth is the key factor (50% of macrophyte biomass variability among these lakes is statistically explained). Further analyses also demonstrate that the months from March to June are not only the actively growing season for most macrophytes, but the key time the factor acts. Five key-time models yielding higher predictive power (r2 reaches 0.75, 0.76, 0.77, 0.69 and 0.81) are generated. A comparison between key-time models and traditional synchronic ones indicates that key-time models have higher predictive power. Analyses of transparency thresholds during macrophyte growing season and the limitations of the models are presented. The models and other results may benefit the work concerning submersed macrophyte recovery in Yangtze lakes.