Surface modeling of human carrying capacity of terrestrial ecosystems in China

Surface models are developed for simulating the food provision capacities of cropland, grassland, woodland, and aquatic ecosystems. Based on these models, it appears that Chinaʹs current agricultural structure is responsible for the shortage of food. If the agricultural production structure was improved so as to result in balanced nutritional value, the human carrying capacity would be 2029, 1914, and 1794 million individuals, living under the standards of the primary well-to-do life, full well-to-do life, and well-off life, respectively, taking into account the threshold of the human carrying capacity and an 11% production drop caused by natural disasters. If 57 billion m3 of water were transferred from southern to northern China by a south-to-north water diversion project and 17.3 billion m3 of water were diverted into agriculture, the human carrying capacity would be 2058, 1940, and 1817 million individuals, respectively, under the three living standards.