Using hydrologic suitability for native Everglades slough vegetation to assess Everglades restoration scenarios

Simulating ecological indicator responses to alternate restoration strategies provides decision support tools for resource managers and restoration planners. Our case study provides a methodology for how to utilize hydrologic suitability for native vegetation to evaluate effects of modeled restoration scenarios. We propose that hydrologic suitability of white water lily, Nymphaea odorata, an indicator species of the native Florida Everglades slough vegetation community, be used to evaluate modeled restoration scenarios in the Everglades ridge and slough landscape. Based on experimentally derived mesocosm and field studies and historical evidence, we developed a predictive performance measure to assess hydrologic suitability for N. odorata. We applied the performance measure to predict the hydrologic suitability for slough vegetation in the Everglades ridge and slough landscape using model-simulated hydrology of existing conditions, future conditions with restoration, and the predrainage Everglades. Our results indicate that Everglades restoration will provide the greatest benefits to native slough vegetation in Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wildlife National Refuge (LNWR), Water Conservation Area (WCA) 3B, and Everglades National Park, and may degrade slough conditions within portions of WCA 2 and WCA 3A. Our analysis indicates that additional restoration efforts are needed to fully restore native slough vegetation communities throughout the Everglades ridge and slough landscape. Performance measure results for the predrainage scenario in the WCAs conflict with paleoecological data; these results indicate a need to improve the modeled predrainage topography as well as flow and evapotranspiration rates of the Natural System Model version 4.6.2 (hereinafter NSM).