Mapping landscape services, spatial synergies and trade-offs. A case study using variogram models and geostatistical simulations in an agrarian landscape in North-East Germany

This paper presents a probabilistic approach for mapping and assessment of services provided by landscapes, based on variogram modelling and geostatistical simulations. Of operational value is that several services can be treated and mapped simultaneously, providing an efficient tool to model the heterogeneity of different landscape components. The methodology was adopted to depict spatial heterogeneity of five landscape services in the case study area of Mنrkische Schweiz in North East Germany: habitat for species, crop production, visual appreciation, water supply, and water regulation. Results, displayed in terms of single and joint probability maps, provide new insights about the composition and interrelation of multiple services in a region. It is shown that each landscape service is characterised by a specific spatial pattern, described in terms of heterogeneity and spatial range. Setting a probability threshold of service occurrence >0.50, 10% of the area under agricultural land uses provides no landscape services, 35% delivers one service while 25% and 19% supply two and three services, respectively. The share of agricultural area with a potential joint provision of four services equals 10%, while only 1.4% of the area has a potential to deliver five joint landscape services. The highest mean join probability is that observed for the common supply of production and habitat services (30%), highlighting the occurrence of hotspots of services provision with possible conflicts due to the on-going intensification of agricultural management.