Debating the biological reality of modelling preservation

Predictive food microbiology is a rapidly developing science and has made great advances. The aim is to debate a number of issues in modelling preservation: (1) inoculum and prehistory effects on lag times and process susceptibility; (2) mechanistic vs. empirical modelling; and (3) concluding remarks (the Species concept, methodology and biovariability). Increasing the awareness in these issues may bridge the gap between the complex reality in food microbial physiology and the application potential of predictive models. The challenge of bringing integrated preservation or risk analysis further and developing ways to truly model and link biological susceptibility distributions from raw ingredients via process survival to outgrowth probabilities in the final product remains.