Predictive modelling of the individual and combined effect of water activity and temperature on the radial growth of Fusarium verticilliodes and F. proliferatum on corn

The major objective of this study was to develop validated models to describe the effect of aw and temperature on the radial growth on corn of the two major fumonisin producing Fusaria, namely Fusarium verticilliodes and F. proliferatum. The growth of these two isolates on corn was therefore studied at water activities between 0.810–0.985 and temperatures between 15 and 30 °C. Minimum aw for growth was 0.869 and 0.854 for F. verticilliodes and F. proliferatum, respectively. No growth took place at aw values equal to 0.831 and 0.838 for F. verticilliodes and F. proliferatum, respectively. The colony growth rates, g (mm d− 1) were determined by fitting a flexible growth model describing the change in colony diameter (mm) with respect to time (days). Secondary models, relating the colony growth rate with aw or aw and temperature were developed. A third order polynomial equation and the linear Arrhenius–Davey model were used to describe the combined effect of temperature and aw on g. The combined modelling approaches, predicting g (mm d− 1) at any aw and/or temperature were validated on independently collected data. All models proved to be good predictors of the growth rates of both isolates on maize within the experimental conditions. The third order polynomial equation had bias factors of 1.042 and 1.054 and accuracy factors of 1.128 and 1.380 for F. verticilliodes and F. proliferatum, respectively. The linear Arrhenius–Davey model had bias factors of 0.978 and 1.002 and accuracy factors of 1.098 and 1.122 for F. verticilliodes and F. proliferatum, respectively. The results confirm the general finding that aw has a greater influence on fungal growth than temperature. The developed models can be applied for the prevention of Fusarium growth on maize and the development of models that incorporate other factors important to mould growth on maize.