Modeling the frequency and duration of microbial contamination events

The frequency and duration of microbial contamination events in the environment in which ready-to-eat (RTE) foods are exposed for processing and packaging is subject to uncertainty and variability. Variability, within-model parameter uncertainty, and uncertainty regarding model selection are formally considered in modeling the frequency and duration of such contamination events by Listeria species. The estimated duration of contamination events represents a case where variability dominates with relatively little uncertainty about parameter values or model form. The estimated frequency of contamination events represents a case where there is not only substantial variability but also considerable within-model parameter uncertainty, as well as some uncertainty regarding model selection. The Bayesian Information Criterion provides a formal way of taking into account model uncertainty.