Modeling of frac flowback and produced water volume from Wattenberg oil and gas field

The objective of this study was to develop models that could be used to predict frac flowback and produced water volumes considering the unique decline rates that exist for different types of oil and gas wells. Specifically, water production data from the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (COGCC) and Noble Energy Inc. were used to develop models for water production for vertical and horizontal wells, a distinction made largely due to the different amounts of water used for each. If centralized water treatment and handling facilities are going to be designed and constructed, it is important to have a reliable estimate of the water that will be produced in the future as wells are completed and brought on line. An Excel-based tool was developed utilizing the horizontal and vertical well models for predicting total volume of water production by current and future wells in Wattenberg Field. Two case studies have been conducted including one with all of the Noble wells in Wattenberg Field and one with a subset assuming a regional treatment center might be established. Uncertainty of the predictions was determined using standard error calculations on the two modeling parameters for water flow decline rates. An interactive Excel-based spreadsheet has been developed to allow predictions of water production based on the number of horizontal and vertical wells drilled in the future.