Uncertainty management: From geological scenarios to production scheme optimization

Uncertainty management occurs at each step of oil field life, starting from exploration phase to development and production. A rigorous probabilistic analysis is then useful to take decision in a risk-prone environment. The statistical theory, and especially the experimental design approach, is clearly well-suited to determine the main acting uncertain parameters, to evaluate the impact of uncertainty on production forecasts, and to help taking decision during the reservoir development. s paper, several statistical methods are proposed, mainly based on the experimental design technique, to solve practical problems throughout the field life:– ting geological scenarios: for instance, existence of a fault; ing and ranking impact of uncertain parameters on production profiles; ing production forecasts under uncertainty; ing relevant parameters for production scheme optimization: drilling a new well, determining the production rate for maximizing the plateau duration; ming an economic risk evaluation. techniques have been widely validated both on realistic synthetic cases and on real field cases. Thus, an illustration of this whole original risk assessment methodology through various field case examples corresponding to different modeling workflow and problematic is presented.