A new tool for prospect evaluation in shale gas reservoirs

In recent years, unconventional gas (particularly shale gas – SG) has played an increasing role in satisfying gas demand both in North America and beyond. Despite extensive development, minimal work has been done to develop tools and methodologies for SG prospect analysis. Due to the complexity and variability among SG prospects, it is crucial to not only investigate all possible prospects, but also to investigate all areas within the selected prospect to pick pilot locations which offer the best potential for commercial success. In addition, due to the complexity of SG reservoirs, many authors have suggested that stochastic techniques should be used to assist in quantifying the risk and uncertainty of the analysis. aper discusses a new tool that was developed specifically for SG exploration and development. This tool combines the latest production data analysis and rate forecasting techniques with a simple, yet rigorous stochastic method for analyzing pilot well locations. The paper discusses the rate forecasting techniques used in the tool, as well as the tool development and application. Both simulated and field cases are provided to demonstrate the new methodology. This paper is an extension of the work presented by Williams-Kovacs and Clarkson (2011).