Simulation and evaluation of 2010 emission control scenarios in a Mediterranean area

At the onset of the 2010 statutory deadline for the respect of the European National Emission Ceiling directive, two questions arise. Will the engaged regulations for the respect of ozone air quality thresholds be fully efficient on the most polluted regions? How can we design the continuation of ozone control in those areas? This study is based on refined 3D modelling studies over a French Mediterranean region. It compares 2001 and 2003 situations with several prospective 2010 emission scenarios with, for the first time, the evaluation of local action plans. The degree of compliance with air quality regulation is investigated and the impact of emission control on the local potential for ozone formation is discussed. The results show that current efforts on emissions, although substantial and efficient, are not sufficient yet to abrogate all the ozone threshold exceedances. They also highlight the gap between regulatory and effective emission control, as well as the need for regional regulations to complete national efforts. Finally, the simulations indicate that large-scale emission control significantly helps reducing rural ozone (−20 ppbv) but affects much fewer (−2 to −10 ppbv) the highest peaks. The continuation and the strengthening of ozone policies under their current form in such regions are considered.