An assessment of Aviation’s contribution to current and future fine particulate matter in the United States

The impacts of aviation emissions on current and future year fine particulate matter (PM2.5) were investigated using the Community Multiscale Air Quality model, accounting for aviation emissions from 99 airports and below 3 km during landing and takeoff (LTO) cycles. Results indicated that current year aviation emissions increased annual average PM2.5 concentrations by 3.2 ng m−3 (0.05%) in the continental U.S. while projected 2025 aviation emissions increased annual average PM2.5 by 11.2 ng m−3 (0.20%). Ammonium nitrate aerosol was the largest contributor to the increase in PM2.5 concentrations, particularly in the future year. Using an indicator of inorganic PM2.5 change, we attributed ammonium nitrate aerosol contributions in both years to excess free ammonia (8% higher NH3 and 35% lower NOx emissions from non-aviation sources in 2025 than 2005), and higher aircraft emissions of NOx (which when converted to HNO3 forms ammonium nitrate aerosol) than SO2 (a precursor of ammonium sulfate aerosol). Our findings highlight the critical role that non-aviation emissions play in assessing the air quality impacts of aviation emissions in a future year scenario.