Black carbon emissions from on-road vehicles in China, 1990–2030

The rapid increase of the vehicle population makes the transport sector a significant contributor to China’s BC emissions. In this study, we developed an inventory to estimate emissions, reductions, and projections of BC from on-road vehicles. Total emissions of on-road vehicles were 15.0 Gg in 1990 and 64.0 Gg in 2009. Diesel vehicles were the biggest contributor, emitting 83%–95% of total emissions. Results of provincial-level analysis showed that Guangdong, Shandong, and Hebei had higher emissions than other provinces. Emission standards introduced by the government to reduce particulate matter (PM) resulted in decreased BC emissions. Total reductions were up to 375.8 Gg in the period of 1999–2009, equivalent to 270 Tg CO2 (100-year). Projections show that emissions continue to decline from 2010 but start to increase from 2015 under a BAU scenario. If EURO V/VI emission standards are implemented, emissions will decline steadily until 2025. Further reductions of BC can be achieved by using biodiesel and low-sulfur fuels.