Impacts of future air pollution mitigation strategies on the aerosol direct radiative forcing over Europe

Projections of aerosol emissions for 2030 have been recently generated and implemented in a comprehensive chemistry-transport model to analyse the future evolution of the aerosol radiative forcing over Europe. In this study, numerical developments based on an off-line coupling between the regional chemistry-transport model CHIMERE (extended by an aerosol optical module) and the radiative transfer code GAME have been implemented in order to simulate the interaction of physico-chemically resolved aerosols with radiation at regional scale. This novel approach is used to examine the shortwave aerosol direct radiative forcing response to two air pollution reduction scenarios for 2030 over Europe. Our study suggests that measures introduced to improve future air quality could have large implication on the aerosol climate forcing over Europe. Results of simulations indicate that abatement of aerosols in the near future could lead to a decrease of the aerosol cooling effect at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere over the main anthropogenic emission regions. Especially over the Moscow region, different strategies of reduction for scattering sulphate and absorbing black carbon aerosols between the two scenarios could result, however, in either a reduction or an enhancement in atmospheric radiative forcing.