A study on the trends of vehicular emissions in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region, China

This paper aims to study the vehicular emissions trends in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region, located in northern China. The multiyear emission inventories of NOX, CO, VOC and PM10 from road vehicles in the period 1999–2010 were developed by the COPERT IV model. Results show that vehicular emissions of CO and VOC have decreased by annual average change rates (AACR) of −3.1% to −5.2% and −4.4% to −6.9% in the study area, respectively. However, due to the rapid development of freight traffic, emissions of NOX and PM10 have kept increasing in Tianjin and Hebei. Based on the vehicular emission inventories, trends of emission levels for vehicles with different standards, as well as the overall effects of implementing vehicular emission mitigation strategies were assessed. It is suggested that passenger cars (PC) with Euro 0 and Euro I standards, which were at higher emission level in the PC fleet, should be gradually eliminated. Although the increasing rates (IR) of emissions from PC were lower than those of the PC population, the sharp growth of PC population in recent years contributed to a remarkable increase of emissions, weakening the overall mitigation effect. Total vehicle population capacity and other mitigation measures should be studied in China in order to develop new and more effective vehicular emission control strategies.