Statistical analysis of the frequency of eruptions at Furnas Volcano, Sمo Miguel, Azores

Furnas Volcano is one of three major volcanic centres on the island of São Miguel, Açores. Both Furnas and Fogo have displayed violent explosive activity since the island was first occupied in the early 15th century AD. There is concern that future volcanic activity will not only cause major economic losses, but will also result in widespread mortality, and it is for these reasons that a major programme of hazard assessment has been undertaken on Furnas. The present study is part of this programme and involves both the general statistical modelling of the record of historic eruptions and, more specifically, develops a technique for determining the rate of volcanic eruptions (λ), an important parameter in the Poisson probability model.