Sensitivity of air quality to potential future climate change and emissions in the United States and major cities

Simulated present and future air quality is compared for the years 2006–2010 and 2048–2052 over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Regionally downscaled present and future climate results are developed using GISS and the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model. Present and future emissions are estimated using MARKAL 9R model. O3 and PM2.5 sensitivities to precursor emissions for the years 2010 and 2050 are calculated using CMAQ-DDM (Direct Decoupled Method). We find major improvements in future U.S. air quality including generally decreased MDA8 (maximum daily 8-hr average O3) mixing ratios and PM2.5 concentrations and reduced frequency of NAAQS O3 standard exceedances in most major U.S. cities. The Eastern and Pacific U.S. experience the largest reductions in summertime seasonal average MDA8 (up to 12 ppb) with localized decreases in the 4th highest MDA8 of the year, decreasing by up to 25 ppb. Results from a Climate Penalty (CP) scenario isolate the impact of climate change on air quality and show that future climate change tends to increase O3 mixing ratios in some regions of the U.S., with climate change causing increases of over 10 ppb in the annual 4th highest MDA8 in Los Angeles. Seasonal average PM2.5 decreases (2–4 μg m−3) over the Eastern U.S. are accounted for by decreases in sulfate and nitrate concentrations resulting from reduced mobile and point source emissions of NOx and SOx.