Computer simulations of tsunamis due to sector collapse at Stromboli, Italy

Stromboli is an island volcano of the Aeolian Volcanic Arc, characterised by persistent activity. The cone rises about 2500–3000 m from its submarine base with very steep slopes; its summit at 924 m above the sea level. The subaerial growth of Stromboli, occurred in the last 100 ka, has been marked by repeated episodes of large gravitational collapses especially affecting the NW flank of the island in the last 13 ka. The last one occurred less than 5000 years ago forming the deep depression on the NW seaward flank, named Sciara del Fuoco (SdF), and it produced very likely large water waves. This paper envisages a scenario where a huge mass of volcanic material collapses into the sea in the same sector in which the SdF collapse took place in Holocenic times and it computes possible tsunami evolutions assuming the present-day bathymetry. Numerical simulations are performed by means of two distinct models; one for the mass collapse and one for the tsunami. Slope failure dynamics are calculated with the aid of a Lagrangian model: the landslide is subdivided into blocks, and the motion of each constituent block is calculated by applying the basic principle of mechanical momentum conservation, with block–block and block–ambient interactions being taken into account. Water waves are computed by solving a system of shallow-water equations including a forcing term dependent on the sliding mass motion. The finite-element (FE) technique is employed since it permits the use of non-uniform grids, which are adequate to account for marine basins with irregular coastlines. In addition to the sensitivity analysis concerning the main parameters governing the slide motion, two main cases are explored, differing in the slide path followed by the mass. The resulting tsunami is very large, with giant waves as high as several meters (tens of meters in the worst cases) impinging the coast. Due to the strong wave refraction induced by bathymetry, waves travel around the island, affecting even the island coast opposite the source.