Alternative paradigms of volcanic risk perception: The case of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines

The literature on peopleʹs response to volcanic hazards tends to be split between two paradigms. The first argues that the choice of adjustment depends on how people perceive rare and extreme volcanic phenomena and the associated risk. The second considers that peopleʹs behavior in the face of natural hazards is constrained by social, economic and political forces beyond their control. The present paper addresses both paradigms and demonstrates that, in order to understand peopleʹs behavior in the face of volcanic threats, volcanic risk perception has to be balanced with non-hazard related factors and structural constraints. These conclusions are based on a case study of Mt. Pinatubo and the lingering threat of lahars from the 1991 eruption. Drawing on the results of a questionnaire-based survey and additional interviews with key informants, it is shown that a high perception of risk does not stop people from choosing to forms of living that put them at high threat from lahars. Furthermore, the paper argues that insufficient opportunity for making a livelihood in resettlement centers and strong attachment to native villages push people back to the banks of lahar channels. Everyday hazards of poverty and the threat to cultural heritage weighed heavier than this seasonal natural hazard. In other words, in a context of economic and social hardship, risk perception of volcanic hazards is necessarily balanced with other risk perceptions. This study does not argue that risk perception is unimportant for understanding peopleʹs adjustment to volcanic environments but rather stresses the need for placing it in its larger and daily contexts which are independent of volcanic hazards.