Numerical inversion and analysis of tephra fallout deposits from the 472 AD sub-Plinian eruption at Vesuvius (Italy) through a new best-fit procedure

A simple semi-analytical model for ash-fall deposit was applied to reconstruct the tephra deposits of the sub-Plinian 472 AD eruption of Vesuvius, Italy, which is of the scale of the reference eruptive scenario for the emergency planning, at Vesuvius. Applying a novel least-squares method, the bulk grain-size distribution, the total mass, and the eruption column height were obtained by fitting the computed ground load and granulometries with the observed ones. The analysis of the effect of three different weighting factors in the minimization procedure was also performed. Results showed that the statistical weighting factor produced the minimum bias. The best correlation between calculated and measured deposit was found, even though the quantity of the input data was not very high, as it commonly occurs for several ancient eruptions. Model results were also in agreement with estimations provided by other independent methods.