Title of article :
Tephra fallout hazard assessment for a Plinian eruption scenario at Volcلn de Colima (Mexico)
Author/Authors :
Bonasia، نويسنده , , R. and Capra، نويسنده , , L. and Costa، نويسنده , , A. and Macedonio، نويسنده , , G. and Saucedo، نويسنده , , R.، نويسنده ,
Issue Information :
روزنامه با شماره پیاپی سال 2011
Pages :
11
From page :
12
To page :
22
Abstract :
Volcanic ash fallout associated with renewal of explosive activity at Colima, represents a serious threat to the surrounding urbanized area. Here we assess the tephra fallout hazard associated with a Plinian eruption scenario. The eruptive history of Volcán de Colima shows that Plinian eruptions occur approximately every 100 years and the last eruption, the 1913, represents the largest historic eruption of this volcano. We used the last eruption as a reference to discuss volcanic hazard and risk scenarios connected with ash fallout. Tephra fallout deposits are modeled using HAZMAP, a model based on a semi-analytical solution of the advection–diffusion–sedimentation equation for volcanic particles. Based on a statistical study of wind profiles at Colima region, we first reconstructed ash loading maps and then computed ground load probability maps for different seasons. The obtained results show that a Plinian eruptive scenario at Volcán de Colima, could seriously damage more than 10 small towns and ranches, and potentially affect big cities located at tens of kilometers from the eruptive center. The probability maps obtained are aimed to give support to the risk mitigation strategies.
Keywords :
plinian eruption , HAZMAP , Hazard assessment , 1913 Colima eruption , volcanic tephra fallout
Journal title :
Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research
Serial Year :
2011
Journal title :
Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research
Record number :
2246764
Link To Document :
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