Aspects of historical eruptive activity and volcanic unrest at Mt. Tongariro, New Zealand: 1846–2013

The 6 August and 21 November 2012 eruptions from Upper Te Maari crater have heightened interest in past activity at Mt. Tongariro, New Zealand. Risks caused by volcanic hazards are increasingly being quantified by using probability estimates through expert elicitation, partly based on the frequency of past eruptions. To maximise the accuracy of these risk values at Mt. Tongariro, a historical eruption catalogue is required. aper presents the findings of a detailed historical chronology of unrest and eruptions at Mt. Tongariro between 1846 AD and 2013 AD. It builds on the findings of previous researchers, highlighting that volcanic eruptions and unrest have occurred frequently from this volcano. Eruptions are now thought to have occurred at Mt. Tongariro in 1869, 1892, 1896–97, 1899, 1926, 1927, 1934 and 2012. Eruptions also potentially occurred in 1846, 1855, 1886, and 1928, in addition to frequent eruptions from neighbouring Mt. Ngauruhoe. The number of recognised eruptions during the 1896–97 episode has increased to 18, and the Red Crater area has been found to be more active than previously appreciated. Multiple episodes of unrest not resulting in eruptions have also been identified. uption recurrence rates are derived from this catalogue, with the baseline probability of the onset of an eruption episode calculated to be 0.07 per year (if 1896–97 and 2012 are considered as one episode each, and all others separately), and the maximum eruption rate within an eruption episode is 18 per year. These new data contribute towards risk assessments for future eruptions at Mt. Tongariro.