Methodology for estimating probability of success of Escape, Evacuation, and Rescue (EER) strategies for arctic offshore facilities

Offshore oil and gas production platforms must have Escape, Evacuation, and Rescue (EER) plans and resources to protect personnel in the event of a major accident. However, for offshore platforms in arctic regions, existing solutions may not be sufficient due to the extreme environmental conditions. This paper presents a methodology for evaluating the relative probabilities of success of arctic EER strategies to (1) help prioritize technology development and data collection efforts needed to develop and select a robust EER strategy and (2) analyze the predicted probabilities of success of various EER strategies in more detail once the input parameters are better known. The methodology is based on well known risk assessment tools (event trees and Monte Carlo simulation) that can easily be adjusted to account for the appropriate level of detail. As an example, the method is applied to hypothetical EER strategies composed of various combinations of helicopters, ice-breaking platform supply vessels, Air Cushioned Vehicles, Tracked Amphibious Vehicles, and ice-strengthened lifeboats. Input parameters used in the analysis include prevalence of various environmental conditions by month (low temperature, high seas, low visibility, etc.), ability to deploy craft in a hazardous situation, ability to transit over ice ridges, ability to transit heavy seas, operator competence, etc.