A Snow Disaster Forecasting System (SDFS) constructed from field observations and laboratory experiments

The Snow Disaster Forecasting System (SDFS) was constructed by the Snow and Ice Research Center at the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (SIRC/NIED). It has the capability to predict avalanche potential, visibility in blowing snow, and snow conditions on roads. New schemes, such as the dry snow metamorphism factor (DSM factor) describing snow grain evolution and the ejection factor for blowing snow particles were introduced and incorporated into the SDFS. Differences between the modeled and observed vertical profiles of snowfall intensity were found by radar observations. The SDFS has experimentally provided predictions to registered users in real-time for three winters. A questionnaire survey of the users showed that the SDFS has the potential to provide useful predictions for decision making, although improved accuracy and usability are required. To improve the prediction, it is important to clarify the microphysical processes of snowfall systems, blowing snow, and snowpack by quantitative field observations and well-controlled laboratory experiments.