The impacts over time of marine protected areas: A null model

A dynamic one-dimensional model of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) along a coastline has been developed to investigate their impact on fish stocks and landings over time. The model is basically a cellular automaton implemented with a spreadsheet and is used to trace stocks and landings from the initiation of the MPA for several years under a set of three different scenarios for the allocation of fishing effort. In all cases landings decline as soon as part of the coastline is protected, but in every case they recover to their original level and above. The time it takes for landings to recover ranges from four to nine years and with two small MPAs (several small) the recovery is faster than with one large one of the same spatial extent (single large). These results indicate that although fishery closures through an MPA will undoubtedly have an immediate adverse impact on the fishing industry, the chances of full recovery after several years are good, and both the fishery and the fish stocks will benefit in the long run. Further, our model provides a null model on the impacts over time of MPAs that may iteratively be compared with real cases that have biological and social variables.