Scenarios of vulnerability in coastal municipalities of tropical Mexico: An analysis of wetland land use

Coastal wetlands in the Alvarado Lagoon System (ALS) have been drained by sugar cane agriculture and cattle ranching. The ALS is located in the Papaloapan river basin, which is the second most important in Mexico, as determined by its area (46 000 km2) and water surface flow. The purpose of this article is to assess the coastal wetlandsʹ vulnerability under three scenarios, current, actual trend and strategic, by building an index at the municipality scale using a Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model. The index includes indicators of land use and vegetation cover. According to the index, each municipality in the ALS has a critical current scenario, and the actual trend scenario increases the vulnerability in all municipalities because of current land use strategies. Only in the strategic scenario does the vulnerability index fall beneath the critical point. The strategic scenario entails reducing the current land use for both sugar cane crops (by 25%) and cattle ranching (by 50%). This study provides an integrated vulnerability evaluation for stakeholders and decision-makers in local and regional arenas. We conclude that changes to the economic policies in the various sectors are necessary to encourage sustainable land use and promote other activities such as coastal wetlands conservation and restoration.