Living with uncertainty: from the precautionary principle to the methodology of ongoing normative assessment

The analysis of our epistemic situation regarding singular events, such as abrupt climate change, shows essential limitations in the traditional modes of dealing with uncertainty. Typical cognitive barriers lead to the paralysis of action. What is needed is taking seriously the reality of the future. We argue for the application of the methodology of ongoing normative assessment. We show that it is, paradoxically, a matter of forming a project on the basis of a fixed future which one does not want, and this in a coordinated way at the level of social institutions. Ongoing assessment may be viewed as a prescription to live with uncertainty, in a particular sense of the term, in order for a future catastrophe not to occur. The assessment is necessarily normative in that it must include the anticipation of a retrospective ethical judgment on present choices (notion of moral luck). To cite this article: J.-P. Dupuy, A. Grinbaum, C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).