Development and application of a simulation model for changes in land-use patterns under drought scenarios

In arid and semiarid areas of northern China, one of the most vulnerable regional environments, water resources are a key constraint on socioeconomic development. We constructed a simulation model for land-use patterns under a drought transition (i.e., the increased frequency and duration of drought since the late 1970s in the Yongding River Basin study area) to account for the complexity of both the driving factors behind land-use change and the micro-level changes in land-use patterns. This model was a combination of the “top-down” system dynamics model, the “bottom-up” cellular automaton model, and the artificial neural network model. In this model, we considered the socioeconomic development and water resource restrictions, as well as the balance between the land-use requirements and the land supply. We then verified the model through a case study. The results demonstrated the value of constructing a simulation model driven by water resource constraints under the influence of drought. The spatial distribution of land uses in future scenarios will help support decision-making for sustainable regional development.