Quantifying multi-element and volumetric uncertainty, Coleman McCreedy deposit, Ontario, Canada

Traditional geostatistical modelling of orebodies and estimation of grade–tonnage curves do not account for the uncertainty of the orebody grades and tonnages. Geological interpretations of complex shapes are often over-constrained, and therefore do not properly identify the location of the ore. In these situations, tonnage is often under-estimated and grade is over-estimated, resulting in orebody models used for mine planning that lead to costly financial decisions. This paper presents an approach aiming to better assess the uncertainty in an orebody model. The approach is applied to Valeʹs West Orebody of the Coleman McCreedy Mine, a poly-metallic deposit containing nickel, copper, gold, platinum and palladium. To encapsulate the orebodyʹs variability and uncertainty, the nickel–copper sulphide mineralized zone is simulated using the single normal equation simulation method. The realizations serve as the orebody models from which the grades of multiple elements are jointly simulated using Min/Max Autocorrelation Factors. The final result is a series of equiprobable representations of the mineralization that incorporates both grade and tonnage uncertainty. The case study indicates that had conventional orebody estimations been used, there would have been a 10% over-estimation of orebody volume, along with significant over-estimation of low-grade material and under-estimation of high-grade material.